Montgomery County Residential Market Report Q2 2026 (April – June 2026)
Published by The Kilner & Kirk Group
What if I told you that the biggest risk in this market right now isn't overpaying — it's hesitating?
That the buyers who waited for "more inventory" this spring got less of it, not more? That the sellers who priced conservatively left money on the table, while the ones who trusted the data got multiple offers in under a month?
That's exactly what happened in Montgomery County this quarter.
3,035 homes sold. $2.53 billion changed hands. And in Potomac, closed sales jumped 30.2% year-over-year — the single clearest signal I've seen in years that this market isn't slowing down. It's compressing. Less time, less inventory, more urgency. And that changes everything about how you should be thinking, whether you're buying or selling.
Here's what the numbers actually tell us — and what to do about them.
The County, By the Numbers
Montgomery County closed 3,035 homes in Q2 2026, totaling $2.53 billion in volume. The median sale price landed at $680,000.
But averages hide the story. Here's the month-by-month reality:
| Metric | Q2 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 | June 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Listings (Units) | 4,477 | 1,547 | 1,543 | 1,387 |
| Closed Sales (Units) | 3,035 | 928 | 1,022 | 1,085 |
| Total Sold Volume | $2,528,547,977 | $733,362,576 | $865,722,390 | $929,463,011 |
| Median Sold Price | $680,000 | $659,500 | $692,000 | $680,000 |
| Average Sold Price | $833,129 | — | — | — |
| Days on Market (DOM) | 25 | 28 | 24 | 23 |
| Continuous DOM (CDOM) | 31 | 36 | 29 | 29 |
| End of Month Inv. (EOM) | — | 2,278 | 2,498 | 2,491 |
| Months Supply (MSI) | — | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Read that Months Supply row again. 3.0 in April. 2.4 by June. That's not a market cooling off — that's a market tightening in real time, month over month, while everyone was still telling clients to "wait and see."
Sellers flooded the market early — 1,547 new listings in April alone — and buyers absorbed nearly all of it. Closed sales climbed every single month, from 928 in April to 1,085 in June. That's not hesitation. That's conviction.
Why This Matters More In Potomac
Here's what I actually want you to understand about influence in a market like this: the buyers with the right information move first, and they move decisively.
Potomac (20854) is the proof:
Median Price: $1,245,000 (down 7.8% YoY)
Closed Sales: 220 (up 30.2% YoY)
Average Days on Market: 24
List-to-Sale Ratio: 100.3%
Prices leveled off slightly compared to last year's highs. But don't mistake that for softness. A 30.2% jump in closed sales is the loudest signal this market can send. Sellers are still getting 100.3% of asking, on average. That's not a buyer's market. That's a market where the buyers who show up prepared are the ones who win.
The Neighborhoods Worth Watching
I'm not going to give you vague "the market varies by area" advice. Here's exactly where the opportunity is right now:
Bethesda – Westmoreland/Edgemoor (20816) Median price jumped nearly 10% year-over-year to $1,502,911. Only 73 closed sales, average 15 days on market. This is the tightest, most competitive pocket in the county. If you're waiting for a deal here, you're waiting for the wrong thing.
Bethesda – Downtown/Cabin John (20817) 159 closed sales, up 15.2% year-over-year. Median price around $1,469,000, holding remarkably stable. This is what a healthy, deep market looks like — volume and price moving together.
Chevy Chase (20815) Median price $1,290,000, but closed sales essentially flat (-1.6%) and days on market stretched to 39 — the longest of any premium ZIP we track. List-to-sale ratio dropped to 97.9%. This is the one market on our list where buyers actually have room to negotiate.
North Potomac / Darnestown (20878) 226 closed sales — the highest volume of any ZIP in this report, even edging out Potomac proper. Prices up 7.6% to $760,000. If you want luxury-adjacent space without the Potomac price tag, this is where the smart money is already going.
If You're Selling: Stop Waiting For "The Right Time"
I'll say what most agents won't: there is no perfect month to list. There's only the data you have right now, and what you do with it.
Months of supply dropped to 2.4 by June. That's lean. Buyers in Potomac are actively hunting — the 30.2% jump in transactions proves it. Homes closing at 100.3% of list price prove something else: realistic, well-researched pricing isn't leaving money on the table. It's what triggers competitive bidding in the first place.
The sellers who win this quarter aren't the ones who price high and wait. They're the ones who price right and let demand do the work.
If You're Buying: Speed Is the Whole Game Now
Spring gave you more inventory than winter did. That part's true. But don't confuse "more options" with "more time."
Homes in Potomac are moving in 24 days on average. In the tightest ZIPs — Westmoreland/Edgemoor, Bethesda Downtown — that number drops even further. List-to-sale ratios are pushing past 100% in multiple high-demand pockets. That means the asking price isn't the ceiling anymore. It's the floor.
If you're serious about buying in this market, the work has to happen before you find the house — financing lined up, priorities clear, ready to move the day it hits the market. The buyers who are still "getting ready" when the right house appears are the ones who lose it.
The Quarter's Winners — and Where to Watch Closely
Strongest Metrics
Highest Appreciation: Bethesda 20816, up 9.7% to $1,502,911
Fastest-Selling: Sandy Spring 20860, averaging just 7 days on market
Highest List-to-Sale Ratio: Boyds 20841, averaging 103.6%
Most Active Market: North Potomac/Darnestown 20878, 226 closed sales — narrowly ahead of Potomac's 220
Worth Watching
Boyds 20841: Days on market climbing to 81 despite the strong list-to-sale ratio — a market worth double-checking before you assume it's still moving fast
Chevy Chase 20815: List-to-sale ratio slipping to 97.9% — the clearest negotiation room in this report
Potomac 20854: That 30.2% surge in closed sales means a large volume of inventory is cycling through fast. Good for sellers today. Worth monitoring for what it means next quarter.
The Bottom Line
Markets don't reward the people who wait for certainty. They reward the people who understand the data well enough to move before everyone else catches up.
This quarter, that meant sellers who priced with confidence and buyers who moved with speed. Next quarter, it'll mean something else — and we'll be the ones telling you what, before it shows up in the headlines.
The Kilner & Kirk Group | Hyper-local real estate insights for Potomac, Maryland (ZIP 20854) & Montgomery County
